Research

First-authored; with Mark Manger (UoT) & Ugo Panizza (IHEID, CEPR)

CEPR Discussion Paper 21251, 2025; Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2026 forthcoming

Emerging market economies (EMEs) regularly tap domestic and international capital markets through scheduled sovereign bond auctions. In this paper, we leverage a novel dataset covering over 75,000 sovereign issuance events and 20,000 securities from 20 EMEs between the early 2000s and 2023 to analyze the determinants of bond issuance choices, focusing on volume, maturity, and currency denomination. We find that local currency debt issuance is largely associated with refinancing needs, while foreign currency issuance reflects more strategic and cyclical considerations. In particular, foreign currency issuance correlates with global macroeconomic conditions, interest rate differentials, and investor sentiment. Our findings suggest that EME governments differentiate their debt management strategies based on the currency of issuance, with local currency issuance shaped by domestic budget mechanics and foreign currency issuance by external constraints and opportunities.

with Michael Chui, Leonardo Gambacorta, Ugo Panizza, and Niccolò Rescia

BIS Working Paper, forthcoming

African public debt has undergone a structural shift over the past two decades, with domestic instruments overtaking external borrowing as the primary source of new financing. Drawing on the African Debt Database, this paper documents how the domestic turn has reconfigured sovereign risk. Currency mismatches associated with hard-currency external borrowing have narrowed, but they have been replaced by higher nominal borrowing costs, persistently short maturity structures, elevated rollover exposure, and a tightening sovereign–bank nexus. Domestic bonds carry a persistent premium over Eurobonds—above 100 basis points by 2024—while the continental average maturity has barely changed over the boom period. Domestic markets have become the principal adjustment margin under stress: during the 2020 COVID shock, the 2022–23 global tightening cycle, and following climate disasters, sovereigns substitute toward short-tenor Treasury bills, preserving access to financing while compressing the maturity profile of the debt stock. We draw out the implications for the sovereign–bank nexus, for the design of domestic debt restructurings, and for the role of prudential regulation in either amplifying or moderating these vulnerabilities.

with Mark Manger, David Mihalyi, Ugo Panizza, Niccolò Rescia, Christoph Trebesch · CEPR Discussion Paper, 2025

This paper introduces the African Debt Database (ADD) - a new, comprehensive dataset that traces both domestic and external debt instruments at a granular level. The main innovation is a detailed mapping of Africa’s domestic debt markets, drawing on rich, new data extracted from government auction reports and bond prospectuses. The database covers over 50,000 individual government loans and securities issued by 54 African countries between 2000 and 2024, amounting to a total of USD 6.3 trillion in debt. For each instrument, it provides harmonized micro-level information on currency, maturity, interest rates, instrument type, and creditor. The data reveal the growing dominance of domestic debt in Africa — albeit with substantial cross-country variation. Four stylized facts stand out: (i) the rapid expansion of domestic debt markets, especially in middle-income countries; (ii) the wide dispersion in borrowing costs and real interest rates; (iii) large cross-country differences in maturity structures and associated rollover risks; and (iv) a rising debt-service burden, particularly due to international bonds. Generally, this project shows that debt transparency is both feasible and valuable, even in data-scarce environments.

Single-authored

The paper investigates how an exogenous depreciation against the U.S. dollar affects corporate profits and government revenues. Using country-level panel regressions (OLS and GMM) alongside a calibrated New Keynesian DSGE model, it shows that domestic-currency depreciation raises corporate income tax (CIT) and total tax revenue in the short run, driven by valuation effects and demand expansion under different currency‐pricing regimes.

Single-authored

Drawing on a novel dataset of commodity deliveries in Chinese exchanges and country‐year export invoicing shares, it explores how China’s growing role as a trade partner and commodity exchange operator influences exporters’ currency choices.