Research

First-authored; with Mark Manger (UoT) & Ugo Panizza (IHEID, CEPR)

Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 42(2), 415–447 (2026)

Published online: 21 October 2026

Using auction-level data from 20 emerging markets, this paper examines how governments choose the volume, maturity and currency of sovereign bond issuance. Local-currency issuance is closely tied to refinancing needs, while foreign-currency issuance and maturity respond more strongly to global financial conditions, investor participation and commodity-price shocks. The findings show how domestic financing needs and external market conditions shape borrowing choices differently across currencies.

with Michael Chui, Leonardo Gambacorta, Ugo Panizza, and Niccolò Rescia

BIS manuscript; in editorial preparation

Using the African Debt Database, this paper examines how domestic borrowing reshapes sovereign risk. Domestic markets reduce currency mismatch and provide a buffer against external financing shocks, while higher nominal borrowing costs, rollover exposure and a stronger sovereign–bank nexus create new vulnerabilities. Domestic bonds carried a nominal premium over Eurobonds of around 100 basis points on average by 2024. During global stress, greater reliance on short-term domestic issuance can preserve financing access while increasing refinancing risk. The paper also discusses evidence from related studies linking climate shocks to steeper domestic yield curves, especially in high-debt sovereigns, and draws implications for debt management, domestic debt restructuring and financial stability.

with Mark Manger, David Mihalyi, Ugo Panizza, Niccolò Rescia, Christoph Trebesch · CEPR Discussion Paper 20747 (2025)

Introduces the African Debt Database, an instrument-level dataset covering more than 50,000 government loans and securities across 54 African countries over 2000–2024, totalling USD 6.3 trillion. Drawing on government auction reports, bond prospectuses and other primary sources, it harmonises information on currency, maturity, interest rates, instrument type and creditor. The paper documents the expansion of domestic borrowing and large differences across countries in borrowing costs, maturity structures and debt-service burdens, providing a foundation for research on sovereign financing and debt transparency.

Single-authored

Combines cross-country panel estimates with a calibrated New Keynesian small-open-economy model to study how exchange-rate depreciation affects corporate profits and tax revenues under alternative trade-invoicing regimes. The project examines the mechanisms linking currency movements to fiscal outcomes and how these vary across emerging markets.

Develops a framework in which sovereign debt instruments relax different constraints on real resources, foreign exchange and usable Treasury liquidity. The project asks why deeper domestic debt markets may not substitute one-for-one for external financing, with preliminary applications to African and emerging-market sovereigns.

Single-authored

Uses country-level invoicing data and original data on physical delivery through Chinese commodity exchanges to study whether China’s growing role as a customer and trading centre shifts export invoicing away from incumbent currencies.

Develops measures of household surplus capacity above basic needs using survey data and examines whether broader household resource buffers support domestic demand, productive investment, financial intermediation and macroeconomic resilience.